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Long considered a pushover in the Governor race for Busia. Deputy Governor Moses Mulomi has thrown the rankings into a tailspin, shocking political pundits, observers and strategists.
The DG has emerged head-and-shoulders above all the other candidates in the race to succeed Governor Sospeter Ojaamong.
This is according to the latest confidential opinion polling conducted across the competitive border County.
The shock factor alone is likely to reverberate across the hills and Valleys of County 040 until the much-anticipated elections of 2022.
A majority of Busia voters would vote for Moses Mulomi as Governor if elections were held today. This is according to a confidential poll released this week. 29% of respondents prefer Mulomi.
Otuoma and Bunyasi are in a statistical tie with 23% and 22% respectively. The poll has a 5% margin of error. Lucas Meso would score 8%, Vincent Sidai 6%, Florence Mutua 4% and Amos Wako 3%. Another 6% said they were undecided.
Pollsters surveyed 659 voters between August 24 and 28.
Less than a year to the August 2022 General Elections, the race has attracted political heavyweights; current Busia Deputy Governor Moses Mulomi,Paul Otuoma, Florence Mutua and Vincent Sidai among others. Both Otuoma and Sidai will be making a second attempt to clinch the coveted seat. Both of them came to within a whisker of winning in their inaugural runs in consecutive elections losing narrowly to Sospeter Ojaamong. Women Representative Florence Mutua is making a controversial first attempt.
Incumbent Governor Sospeter Ojaamong is finishing his 2nd and final term in less than a calendar year. He is constitutionally barred from seeking a 3rd term. In a ringing endorsement that caught everyone unawares, the affable politician threw his weight behind DG Moses Mulomi. “I have settled on my deputy, H.E Moses Mulomi as the next Governor of Busia County,” Ojaamong was quoted as saying, in a statement issued to the media, “He is a person of integrity, who dislikes violence but rather embraces peace and unity…I urge county residents to elect H.E Mulomi as the next county chief.”
With this endorsement and if a majority of the Iteso community supports the DG, he stands the highest chance of emerging victorious.
After a strong run in the 2017 Elections, it was expected that former Funyula MP Paul Otuoma would enter the homestretch of this race as the runaway favourite. According to the latest opinion poll however, where he’s polling at number 2, it seems voters are no longer captive to his abrasive, erratic brand of politics. Observers opine that the holloi polloi seem more attracted to the gentlemanly mien of the DG Moses Mulomi that is better suited to the cauldron that is Busia County governance. It’s noteworthy that the former Funyula MP is in a statistical tie with a newcomer, the current Nambale MP John Bunyasi.
The Deputy Governor has charmed the hearts and minds of the Busia population with his humble, down to earth leadership style that leaves room for little animosity. A series of factors also seems to be working in his favour. These include a strong work ethic in the boardroom that has seen the County Government of Busia go all out on a project-completion spree in the last two financial years. The DG is also the favourite of the Busia business community as he’s seen as the candidate most likely to offer a seamless transition from the Ojaamong years and stability into the future.
A source close to the Deputy Governor, speaking on the condition of anonymity as she is not allowed to discuss such matters hinted to our writer that they have been burning the midnight oil to lock out both Otuoma and Mutua from the vote rich Butula subcounty. This plan is working very well. Butula is the DG’s home ground. There is no way, according to our source, they will support any other person from a smaller luhya sub community when their own is an inch away from ascending to Governorship.
Professor James Natabona, a political strategist familiar with Busia politics, told this paper that Mulomi stands very high chances of winning for two reasons: one, the numbers of his Marachi community and two, his good working relationship with the current Governor. The professor of politics argues that any politician has only one chance in a political lifetime to create euphoria. Otuoma squandered his chance in 2017.
“Because of euphoria, Otuoma got free votes and free support when Busia people were in protest against the first regime of Ojaamong. The people believed Ojaamong had achieved so little Said Prof Natabona, “Butula subcounty overwhelmingly voted for Otuoma but when they assess, they notice that there is nothing they can credit to him for the years he was the Minister that he had done for the community.” He concluded that without even a toilet to Otuoma’s name there is no way the Marachi can vote for him again. Another opinion shaper from Teso North Wilberforce Etyang hinted to this paper that he doubts his community can vote for Otuoma considering the fear that was created to their community in 2017. “We are happy with how the current Deputy has been working with our son,we won’t mind supporting him because he has proved that he can take care of our community” he said.
The results of this poll will be a warning shot across the bows of Florence Mutua, the current Women Representative, who has also declared her candidature for governor. In her maiden attempt for Governor, Mutua enters the homestretch as a rank outsider at number 7, and is currently polling in the single digits. This is a far cry from her previous electoral runs where she has enjoyed front-runner status. Her declaration and campaign have faced a string of strong headwinds most notably the shambolic ODM selection of nominated MCAs into the current County Assembly that was stuffed with her loyalists, many of whom are not residents of Busia. She has also been accused of exporting the Affirmative Action Fund to benefit her home county of Makueni. A section of the locals have reacted with fury giving rise to the clarion call of the common man or woman in Busia that she’s an outsider and should vacate her bid to a natural-born Busian. Her Kamba heritage being a huge contributing factor in the perception that she does not fit into the tribal arithmetic that local politics is beholden to.